So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish

The title is borrowed from the fourth book of Douglas Adams’ Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy “trilogy”, where the dolphins leave earth before its imminent destruction.

This morning I sold the last of my ethereum. Later on GDAX, BTC dropped to as low as $9928, below the Dec 22 low of $10,400, while ethereum got to as low as $852. I have been calling $19.8K on Dec 17 THE peak in BTC since the end of December. The odds of that being right are better than 50/50.

I’ll show my crypto account activity one last time. In the last two weeks, I was able to add a little ethereum and then gradually got out between $1100 and $1400. Overall, I made 15 times my money — not bad for 10 month of “work”. Cryptos will surely go down in history as THE most outrageous collective delusion. I count my blessings that my investment philosophy allowed me to hitch a ride and make a decent profit. The words of George Soros ring true:

“When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire,” he said in 2009. “That is not irrational.”

If I’m right, a large part of the human drama is still to be played out. Many late-comers will lose a lot of money. There’s little that I can say to counsel them other than that in a bear market, bounces are to be sold.

None of the above is investment advice, the standard disclaimer applies.