I have an updated crypto account summary table which shows both the cost basis and prices I have sold at. The number of coins are measured against my peak holdings in May. So far I have sold 25% across the board and cashed out 113% of the initial (also my one and only) deposit which had been scaled to 100.
My plan had always been to keep 20% of the coins long term, which meant I needed a schedule for selling another 55%. Should I do 5% a month for 11 months? Or 5% a month until my original target of $25K and then 10% a month? These were the initial options under consideration. Of course, I would like to wait as much as possible until the capital gains become long term. Last Friday I started looking at the BTC price chart with much greater intensity than ever before in order to formulate a plan.
That effort quickly morphed into a modeling exercise that had me staying up until 3AM Saturday. The key would be the market reaction to the new bitcoin futures: XBT on CBOE will start trading on Dec 10, followed by BTC on CME on Dec 18. Opinions are divided on the immediate repercussions: some say it will release pent-up demand on the short side, but I’m of the opinion that the pent-up demand on the long side is even greater.
So I ran a model assuming a blow-off top. I was absolutely flabbergasted at the conclusion but these were the numbers: the model called for a peak of $60K on Jan 11, 2018. The range was $40-100K with a timing band of +/- 8 days. I still can’t believe it myself as I type these numbers. Needless to say this is a lot higher, and way way earlier than what anything I had in mind.
I won’t go into the model itself — it’s either too valuable or too trivial, depending on your point of view. Without the details, I don’t expect anyone to have the conviction necessary to trade on this projection; that’s never the intention of this blog anyway (that’s my way of saying if you do trade on this you’re a bigger nut job than I). The point of this post is to put another stake in the ground and demonstrate again that I’m not afraid of making a fool of myself when just about every piece written on bitcoin ends with “nobody knows where its price will go”.
We should have a good indication by Xmas whether a blow-off top is in progress, or I just had too much to drink Saturday night.
None of the above is investment advice, the standard disclaimer applies.