Macro and Markets
The 9-page Trump tax reform plan was released this week which was coincident with new highs in stocks, most notably the small caps. I choose my words carefully: most people ascribe the rise in stocks to the tax reform plans but excuse may be a better word. At any rate, there’s scant chance of the plan going through in its present form, its skimpy details notwithstanding. The point is that when the plan is rolled back, the stock market won’t give back any of the gains. On a personal level, it would mean a large tax INCREASE for me due to the elimination of state and local tax deductions.
Alphabet and Amazon finally got their mojo back this week hence the title of this weekly wrap. Needless to say it bodes well for NDX as well as the general stock market. 1998 continues to be the battle cry here.
Major cryptos broke out of their down trend channels this week and according to this analysis is eying a break out of the ascending triangle. I find it a little too optimistic. More basing is expected.
I have been reducing the position in $PCQ, the CA muni CEF this week. Its premium shot up to 22% while the NAV has been dropping. The hope is to re-enter at a lower point.
The position in 3X semi $SOXL has been going strong while new PM hedge with $DUST was added. I still can’t tell if gold has completed its B bounce or not. Either way it looks to have a date with $1240-1250 by the end of October.
Good Reads, Blog Edition
Recommendation this week is for the entire blog rather than any individual posts.
- The Macro Tourist by Kevin Muir, former institutional derivatives trader. The Macro Tourist is witty, insightful and expansive at the same time.
- The Fat Pitch by Urban Carmel, a former McKinsey consultant and President of UBS Hong Kong. The Fat Pitch provides regular updates and analysis on market internals and money manager positioning.
None of the above is investment advice, the standard disclaimer applies.