1998, Weekly wrap, 9/10-16/2017

Macro and Markets

What difference a week makes! The S&P finally made it over 2500 on Friday, brushing aside yet another NK missile test. While Amazon and Alphabet are still wallowing, the semiconductor index conclusively broke out of its triangle. Risk-off assets were sold: gold finally and bonds right after the yields were at resistance the previous week.

My first prediction for a final bubble phase of this market appeared in November 2016. In March 2017, I added that S&P will end the year with a “27 handle”. The words “post August moon-shot” appeared in the very first weekly wrap, where the target was set at “the S&P to 3300-3500 and the NDX to 10K in 12-18 months”, which, to be honest, were meant to be on the safe side. I didn’t really have to write all the preceding words to state my position since there is one number that that succinctly captures them all: 1998, as in the year 1998 in relation to the first tech bubble. E’nuf said.

Cryptocurrencies

Overnight BTC dipped below $3000, ETH to $200 and LTC was in the low $30’s. The sentiment was such that I’m willing to go out on a limb and call a bottom to this correction — or shall I say the conclusion to this particular bubble. I’m beginning to regard bitcoin as a series of bubbles each with a fresh group of hopefuls. Please note that I’m not a crypto trader and don’t take this as trading advice. Do check out the two bitcoin links below especially Charlie Bilello’s.

Portfolio

The Apple ($AAPL) puts were closed on Monday with a 50% gain. They would have expired today had I held but couldn’t take the chance over the iPhone X launch. I added to PM miner hedges on Monday such that I’m only 30% long. On Wednesday I sold puts on Activision Blizzard ($ATVI) as an attempt to acquire the stock cheaper. In addition, I swapped Qualcomm ($QCOM) for more Visa ($V) but regretted it almost instantly. I still have semi exposure elsewhere though.

Good Reads

None of the above is investment advice, the standard disclaimer applies.

Edit Oct 14, 2017: fixed link to “March 2017” post.