Macro and Markets
The week’s low was part of the reversal on Monday. It stopped right at the intermediate trend line and nowhere near to the June low of 2405. Jackson Hole was pretty much a non-event for stocks but gold and bonds were up and the dollar down on the “non-hawkish” Yellen. Next week will be the last chance to take out the June low before the big shots return from summering in the Hamptons. I still see that scenario as more consistent with the post-August “moon-shot” my model has been calling for, but not absolutely necessary.
The Q’s are acting better than the S&P, despite not having leadership from Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL, $GOOG) or Facebook ($FB). This rotation is necessary and healthy. It bodes well for the market when the “kings” do return.
For a second week there is no transaction other than the usual 401K/HSA contributions (which ought be assumed as the norm from now on). This level of activity (or lack thereof) is quite normal as my core positions have been established and the time scale of timing decisions are on the order of years. My largest speculative positions are leaps on the Q’s. Once it starts to move the short put legs will require more frequent maintenance but the long call legs will be held for long term capital gains.
- Accounting for Autocorrelation in Assessing Drawdown Risk from Newfound Research — another piece of outstanding work highlighting the relationship between volatility and drawdowns
- Large Decline in Bullish Investor Sentiment — We done selling now?
- Paradox: With The S&P At All Time Highs, US Stocks Suffer Longest Streak Of Outflows In 13 Years — good old performance chasing
None of the above is investment advice, the standard disclaimer applies.