Lightly Held Opinions

The last post was about my then view of an on-going intermediate correction. I went at length explaining why even have an opinion and the extent of my conviction. I felt I need to further clarify given the recent market actions and my own activities.

The market proved more stubborn than the technical indicators or at least my interpretations led me to believe. In fairness any projections are inherently probabilistic in nature. The refusal to break down and the bounce yesterday have led me to consider the possibility that the “April bounce” originally framed within the context of the intermediate decline may instead produce a new high. Though I still see the decline in May-July bringing us below where we’re currently.

As mentioned, my timing moves to the extent of a 12.7% cash position in the active accounts were “incidental” to the portfolio realignment due to tax considerations. It’s never my plan to trade around an intermediate decline of weeks to several months in duration, especially in the larger context of what I believe will be a memorable bull market. The fact that I’m buying individual stocks rather than the whole market gives more flexibility. As such today I added to BAC, and existing position; and opened a position in MO. Both are at or below their 50 DMA due to recent weakness. The purchases were short of the final intended size.

I hope I have illustrated the nature of my market predictions: they are opinions with a rationale basis that I can defend, but I’m not married to them. I fully accept that I’ll be wrong as often as right; and when the market proves me wrong, I change my mind. There’s nothing to prove, no intellectual battle to be won. My ego won’t provide for my family. In the end, I rather be making money than being right.